Trademark Registrations are a Strong Indicator of Economic Health [RESEARCH]

In the fourth quarter of 2012, during the political wrangling of the fiscal cliff, SecureYourTrademark.com commissioned a research study to analyze historic US stock market trading volumes. Dr. Quinton Nottingham, statistician and Associate Professor in the Department of Business Information Technology at Virginia Tech, studied the volumes of trademark registrations from 1994 through 2012 looking for correlations indicative of a positive relationship between the stock markets and the business activity of trademark protection.

In analyzing the registration volumes, a positive relationship was found creating a strong inference in the investment of businesses in trademark activity and the rises and falls of the stock market. In examining the data from the NASDAQ, Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500, we were able to show as the amount of trading increased there were strongly correlated increases in trademark registrations.

For example, in the time period studied from 1994 through 2012 in the chart below, you can clearly see strong correlation in the rise of the Dot-com bubble reflected in the number or trademark registrations starting in 1997 to the dramatic fall in early 2000.

Trademark Registrations from 1994 through 2012

trademark registrations

You can visually compare the above trademark registration volumes to the below data showing the NASDAQ closing values in this as seen below.

NASDAQ Closing Values from 1994 through 2008

Nasdaq trade volume

In addition to the dramatic rise in trademark registrations leading up to the Dot-com bubble and the decline shortly thereafter, one can also see the increase from 2002 to 2008 and then the fairly flat to slight decline in trademark registration volume during the beginning of the 2008/2009 recession. This trend is clearly observable as well as the positive trend upward during the post-recession recovery period.

The conclusion of this study shows that during a variety of economic conditions, trademark registration activity can be used as a reliable indicator of market activity and business health.

What is in the data set?

  • NASD close and volume data
  • DJIA close and volume data
  • S&P 500 close and volume data
  • Trademark Registration activity from 1994 – 2012
  • Statistical research and correlation analysis comparing Trademark registration activity to each business index noted above.
  • trademark and business indices
  • trademark and business indices
  • trademark and business indices

 

We have made the following data set of Trademark Registration data
publicly available. The data set consists of registrations from 1994 to 2012

 

Download the entire data set yourself and run your own analysis

 

SecureYourTrademark Research conducted by Professor Nottingham – January 2013

* You are free to copy or modify this work so long as you cite this page